a fairly non trcontroversial ply easy way to be in the energy >> given the bpull back. i'll see everybody in overtime in a few hours that does it for us. "the exchange" is here now thanks, scott. i'm jon fortt. we must keep at it until the job is done. jay powell delivering a hawkish speech that another big rate hike could be coming and more pain ahead for the economy what does that pain look like and how do you position your portfolio? and tech hit hard on the prospect of more rate hikes. one of my guests says stick with it it may get ugly, but the bottom is near. and special jackson hole

edition of three buys and a bail the one stock you should own given what we heard from powell today. that is ahead. we start with the selloff. bob is back at the new york stock exchange >> jon, the important thing is average stocks down 2% some bifurcation in the market the dow industrials hit by home depot. the s&p 500 between 4100 and 4200 all day it is a little bit off the lows as you can see not much nasdaq is down a little bit more on the percentage basis. that is where the big cap tech speculative tech is hit hard look at speculative tech these are cathie wood stocks

jay powell was doing a growth scare or interest rate scare, these are the stocks that move to the down side the most. big cap tech profitable tech is down 2% to 4% it depends what you are looking at nvidia had a profit warning in the weeak microsoft and apple champs when the market is down, they perform in line with the market. they are down about 2% the home builders having a rough day. powell talked about dealing with house pain and businesses. home builders started moving down lennar, pulte and dr horton. lennar was $60 a couple of months ago these stocks had big run ups more than the overall market what's up? not much pharmaceutical stocks are up

merck is up. a couple consumer mnames. hormel and campbell. we are down maybe .50% it sounds hard to believe. we are only down .50% for the month. guys, i can't help but think powell is delighted with the stock market the stock market is a wealth barometer and powell talked about pain to households and businesses to the extent that households are invested in the stock market he wants pain there. he is getting, i think, what he wanted today guys, back to you. >> well, folks and the fed is trying to get this result for a while. now maybe investors believing they are serious bob, thank you rates on the move after the

comments from powell rick santelli is more with that. >> if we consider the chairman's speech, it was shorter than many expected and trait to the appointed. there will be inflation fighters no matter what how about the market respond that's what i pay attention to before hand, we had inflation numbers. favors of the fed. consumption expense. headlines in core. all of those have come off of it university of michigan, one-year and ten-year they are still really high levels university of michigan that's a 770-year chart. we had a bounce from the lowest levels on that chart there's improvement on a variety of issues with the economy it is still in dire straits when you consider the rest of the world and europe in particular

as you look at a two-year from beginning of june and big key is where it closes today. that june extreme of 3.43 in the cross hair we are below it. it will be guns hot and aggressive should we close above that level same level for 10 is 3.48. the long way away. the curve today is more inverting. if you look at intraday boones, they looclose at 1.4 a fresh two-year high. if you look at the dollar index, a huge volatility. it is up in the neighborhood of 8.5% to 9% however, what i find interesting is it is still managing to trade higher on the day and on the week even though long rates are lower. it is following the shortened. jon fortt, back to you >> rick santelli, thank you. let's see what pojay powell

said. >> it takes time to require using tools to bring demand and supply into balance. reducing inflation is likely to acquire sustained period of below trend growth there will be softening of labor market conditions. while higher interest rates slower growth and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses these are theunfortunate costs of reducing inflation. a failure to restore price stability would mean more pain. >> what does that pain feel like let's bring in gregory, the chief economist at ey parthenon. greg, why is the market reacting to what the fed has been trying to say for a while and what kind

of pain are we talking about >> i think what we're seeing right now is there's a realization via this very crisp and clear discourse that jay powell shared that the fed is really has the unconditional commitment to bringing down inflation. that it will continue tightening monetary policy and bring poll policy to restrictive stance it will not back down at first sign of slowdown in economic activity in the job market that pain statement was already present in the press conference after the july fmoc meeting and present in the minutes it isa reiteration of the fact to bring down inflation, we have to cool the economy and bring about tighter financial conditions that was the clear message that powell sent today. >> yeah, you say the pain was in there before maybe not as many times, though.

pain, pain, pain maybe it took the repetition also, gas prices are coming down you know, we have inventory built up it was a sense of among people that the work is being done without the fed having to really, you know, hit us hard without a lot of pain. why is that not still the case >> i think what this speech did was make sure that it was short, crisp, clear and really just to the point in terms of what the fed's intentions are the fed is not about to pivot toward lower interest rate environment. it is not pivoting of loosening monetary policy. it wants to tighten monetary policy it is considering doing at a slower pace. that was mentioned in today's speech but what was clear here is that

there is really no desire to pivot toward looser policy the fact this message was short and crisp made the point that the fed is really intent on bringing down inflation and that it will not back down at the first sign of a pain i think sometimes having fewer words gets to the key message and key point much faster than having more words. >> so if we have higher for a bit longer where rates are concerned and if there are already questions about the consumers' stamina heading into q4, what does that mean on the lower end with the consumer stamina in question, but a lot of tightness in the labor markets at a time when employers are looking for more workers >> today's economy is imbalance. a strong imbalance with supply and demand that is likely to continue to be the case for the foreseeable

future an easing of the imbalances will likely ease up inflation pressure as you stated, we have an environment on the labor market with strong demand for labor, but the supply is not there. wage pressure are to the upside. what is encouraging in the last data we have seen today is we're seeing that consumer spending growth is cooling and along with that cooling in consumer spending momentum, we are seeing easing in the sequential momentum of core inflation h headline inflation fell, but that is an energy story. outside of that, the core on a month to month basis, are also seemingly cooling. that's really what the fed wants to see the fed doesn't want to see pain for businesses and consumers for the sake of pain it wants to see a slowdown in demand that will bring about slower inflation and so far, over the course of july, that's

what we've seen. that may be a transitory factor, but so far the dynamics are positive. >> gregory daco, from ey, thank you. do not miss a special "the fed factor" at 6:00 p.m. eastern we will have live coverage from jackson hole right now, stocks are lower. nasdaq taking the biggest hid withgressive hiekes are on the horizon. let's bring in alan. good do see you. you are not getting rid of tech now. why not? so many people are running from it >> great question. first of all, you have to ask yourself where are we in this cycle. we had a number of hikes inflation is still a problem whether the fed hikes by 75 next

month or 50 next month, the majority of the pain is gone in terms of what the fed is planning to do maybe we get another point or a point and a quarter. we need to see what happens when the fed is done. the fed will be done at some point. the futures markets are already pricing in and stubbornly for the fed rate cuts. powell not willing to say that yet. he has to be hawkish we know this can't continue forever. we have to think about what happens next >> well, i mean, really the market seems to be starting to believe him. maybe dad is really not going to take us for ice cream this time. in the past, i know you are looking at what tends to happen after the fed is finished hiking in the past, they've cut you look at the data and probably everything that happened with stocks shows that

reaction to cut. he is saying we are not cutting. we are keeping rates where they are. can you look at historical data in the same way? >> you really have to think about, again, the fed has very few tools in order to, you know, get accomplished what it wants to accomplish. they have jawboning. that's what you hear fed hawkish in its tone. they have the ability to raise rates and quantitative easing and tightening and the pace they do these things. they are operating with blunt instruments. imagine giving yourself heart surgery using a shovel you have to be hawkish you have to talk really, really big. so, again, the market also prices in what we think is going to happen. the fed futures are not pricing in, you know, rates going to 7%. they are pricing in interest rates on the shortene end to a

point or point and a quarter we start to see retreat next year the fed can't say that right now. >> here is the part that is most interesting to me is the question of what kind of recession are we prepared for? into its earnings this week and the earnings call, the ceo talked about mild recession, here is how we expect our business to go and in a way that is baked into their plan how likely is a mild recession based on your picks and i should mention what they are. they include data dog and what else salesforce and service now are you including a mild recession or something more serious in the scenario where you think those are good buys? >> i am thinking a mild recession. there's a lot of things going on that i don't think the market is fully appreciating number one, how strong and

resilient the consumer is. of course, we need consumer spending to slowdown if inflation is going to slow down. at the same time, we had a president just this week, you know, eliminate a bunch of student loan debt. that is helping the consumer which was already in a strong position you have, again, it takes time for the rate hikes to really materialize in terms of how it will impact the market you have a wealthier household than in a long time with lower household bills. i expect a more modest recession. i think the fed, while they are staunch in how they want to fight inflation, i don't see a deep recession largely because of the strong position of the consumer is in and where the labor market is right now. the stocks i like right now, i'm pricing in what will work after the fed is done. we may be a little early some of the names you mentioned,

data dog and salesforce. i want to be poised to grow once the fed is done. >> i hear you. i'm just really watching q4 and this inventory gauntlet that retrailer retailers have to run with chomp in economic activity and if the consumer will show up and such high cost of labor it is a tough one. allan boomer, thank you. >> thank you are there are cheap names you can mcan pick up in the self gene is here with his picks. and what do you buy if the fed keeps hiking rates or if inflation is here to stay? we have a special jackson hole edition of three buys and a bail after this "the exchange" is back after this

>> announcer: iss heth i"t exchange" on cnbc. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

welcome back to "the exchange." nasdaq down 2.25% following the jay powell comments. our next guest says stick with big tech the fourth quarter will be ugly, but has ways to change it.

gene muenster is here. apple and i go back as apple and you. apple held up well so far. how can you recommend it here? >> jon, it is the world's greatest company i think that distinction is something i've never given to a company. the reason i believe this can go higher at 250 the next couple years is the core products are necessity. 70% of products are necessities. i also believe they have an opportunity to get into new markets. these are things that can essentially really kick start growth they have a big problem in cupertino with growth. this is a $400 billion company tech companies are growing or dying. i think one of the key themes within cupertino is how to grow

that jon, when i think about apple, i think about the strong core business and pull position with the markets of health, auto or ar any of those three can unlock significant market potential as you said, jon, you have known this company for a long time you can recount many times when investors get optimistic of owning shares of apple with new markets. that unlocks essentially a higher multiple. so, that's the kind of subst substantial. they have a great core business. we are not talking about the other initiatives. we talk about them with amazon, but not a lot with apple i think eventually that will come around and i think that will be part of not only the earnings growth story, but the multiple growth story. >> one of the areas is advertising or at least making money off the desire of the ecosystem to target advertising.

some might say if apple succeeds there, then meta, the parent of facebook, has to fail. you like meta, too why? >> meta is also about earnings calls. 16 times next year 40% of the global audience of internet audience visits daily that is a powerful impact of how they ultimately monetize they will navigate round the issues there is the metaverse joe rogan marathon of a podcast. three hours. i got through an hour and a half it was presence in the metaverse. i'm a believer that metaverse is inev inevitable whether it is zuckerberg's vision remains to be seen. this is the future i don't want to do or experience because it will take us away from the real world. >> you are bullish on it, but don't want to experience it? you wouldn't have sat there for

an hour and a half with an ar head set on. you would rather close your eyes versus watch avatars >> you are right then again, jon, i'm old i'm 51 if you talk to my 17-year-old nephew, he would be all over the presence when it comes to that the unique part of meta and setting aside the world we want to operate in. they have a strong vision about presence in the future of that as part of the metaverse if that future ends up becoming a reality, it is not just 2d it is present base, meta will have a jump start. investors will come around to this those are the -- that's the justification for meta >> speaking of 3d and immersive environments, gener, hang on. we want to bring in another with

us the stock was up 15% pre-market, steve. it has cooled off since people realized it is ridiculous. >> our own david faber talked down the report. >> he wasn't alone in thinking that he has the sources who told him it is probably not happening why is this area so right for m & a? >> this kicked off with the microsoft announcement they will buy activision for $70 billion how does amazon think about it they have a similar product that microsoft does luna a streaming cloud based gaming service. limited titles no indication out there that it is doing well or making money for the company. with the company like electronic arts or if amazon were to buy them, this is the tent-pole titles they need to attract people to the platform if you look at video games from

the '80s to today, the successful ones that are able to survive are the ones to have the tent-pole first party games. nintendo has super mario and donkey kong. if it wasn't for halo, we would not talk about microsoft and gaming today this is what they are looking which is the first party title these streaming services just boost cloud service. aws just like azure is ben benefitting at microsoft. >> gene, let me bring you in here there are all of the platform dynamics in gaming. big players trying to integrate. steve was talking about amazon and google and microsoft, et cetera the game makers are trying to horizontally integrate and buy mobile gaming companies. have unity, app love and iron

source and ecosystem integrate with the data and targeting and discovery. which one is going to have the biggest payoff for investors >> the biggest payoff for investors is successfully pick the publisher that gets acquired for a big multiple that is where this goes. this is an attention game. we talk about that with streaming video services i think back to 2018 and reid hastings and they compete with "fort nite." i agree with the landscape i think the real juice for investors is to be able to pick we are investors and what it is called a $20 billion company i think they ride a big wave relative to grand theft auto or

they will acquire it i don't know which company it would be they got massive attention that's how i would play it if you push me and say what else could you play i think there are tools for building the content or attention generation businesses like unity >> all right i think "fortnite" is back they have seasons. it is like "bridgerton" for kids my kids are back on it gene munster and steve kovack, thank you. bitcoin may be flashing a buy signal as it threatening to go below 20,000. plus, it's retail etf is on the way to the worst week in months which are poised to out perform? as we head to break.

the dow heat map ouch every name except one in the red. salesforce and nike and 3m are the worst performers "the exchange" is back after this

welcome back to "the exchange." markets right now in selloff mode dow off more than 600 points 630 at the moment. s&p off 2% nasdaq off 2.75. apple and microsoft and alphabet and amazon down. alphabet down quite a bit more you see it is down 4.5 chip makers among the laggards

marvel sinking 7% after guidance on nvidia. cloud and enterprise names also lower. d ducusign and adobe also down let's get to tyler mathisen with more >> the justice department released the redacted affidavit from the mar-a-lago search earlier this month the document cites evidence of obstruction of probable clause of classified materials and taken and stored in unsecured locations at former president trump's residence and club tonight on the news, a breakdown of the redacted search warrant and affidavit and mr. trump's reaction on social

media. moderna to sue pfizer and biontech it used its technology in creating the covid-19 vaccine. moderna is not seeking to keep pfizer's vaccine off the market. they cite the ongoing need for access to covid prevention. massachusetts is set to follow in california's footsteps and ban the sales of new gas powered vehicles beginning in 2035 the law aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase electric and hydrogen cars on the road jon? back to you. >> tyler, thank you. up next, we have three buys and a bail for every fed scenario given what we just heard from powell today, gina sanchez this stock should be part of your portfolio. she joins us with the name next. at c et that your world is always changing and you need to adapt to support your digital transformation.

we can help you achieve your business goals by streamlining your data across cloud environments with netapp cloud services orchestrated by cdw. with greater accessibility and control, you'll be able to accelerate innovation, bring the flexibility of the cloud to your environment, and reduce your infrastructure footprint to contain costs so you can be prepared for whatever is headed your way. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

we reduce homelessness, address mental health, provide spaces for addiction to be broken, create spaces of healing and restoration. for the first time ever, prop 27 will provide permanent funding for organizations like ours. saying yes to prop 27 means more people get the assistance that they nee they get someone to partner in such a way to see transformation come to them. yes on prop 27, because there's no place like home.

welcome back we are in selloff mode markets are acting negatively to the jay powell hawkish stance in the jackson hole remarks

how should investors position themselves we havehave geina sanchez with e buys and a bail today. let's play first buy up morgan stanley the fight against inflation is far from over. gina, you like it in the rising rate environment >> yeah. if you look at how the markets have been reacting, that may not be the case today, but the trend is still there the markets are looking past this rate hiking period. the expected turn around for rate hikes is suspected to be some time in q1 next year. so the long end of the curve is moving than the shortened end morgan stanley is an interesting bank we like it has massive free cash flow and good margins and as many banks do in rising rates, you want

dividend yield that is a good pick for us. >> next buy is mcdonald's. inflation still running hot. gina, no one has better margins to offset cost pressure than mickey d's >> who knew that fast food was like the great shield against inflation? the reality is it is still at the affordable end of the spectrum people continue to buy it. mcdonald's was able to flex in the latest inflation has hit wages and input costs and they managed to further expand their margins their brand value enabled them to continue to increase the price without response from demand the demand remained strong 44% margins is a great place to be if you have to fight inflation. >> looking for a cheap meal. what else? final buy. disney you like it more if the fed took its foot off the gas pedal

>> i'm still bullish on disney the thing about disney is it is a growth play and inflation play the growth play is the parks are still getting up and running and the expected growth out of park revenue is expected to be massive for next year. double digit numbers expected. nearly 50% growth. on the back of that, disney, remember, still has strong a brand as mcdonald's or stronger. disney has been opening up the parks with reduced capacity. to make up for it, they upped the ticket prices and demand is incredibly strong. tickets still sell out that is just an incredibly important thing to note again when you are in an inflation environment. you need pricing power disney has pricing power and growth >> they don't get blamed for raising your cholesterol those are the buys here is one to bail on, you say.

peloton. already down 70% on the year you have been warning investors to bail on this for quite a while. if you haven't bailed yet, should you still bail here >> i think here the warning is it is bouncing it bounced a bit up 15% on the month before today. you know, the story line here is in these markets where the fed is continuing to raise rates and where the cost of cash is going up cost of capital is going up and quite frankly multiples have to come down. the market is not going to have any tolerance for anything that doesn't have earnings or earnings negative or earnings growth negative or frankly the margins are negative peloton hits every single one of those. this is a company that is struggling right now to figure out who it is. it tried to be a sas company that sub accscription as a serve

company started to decrease when people went back to work theyubscriptions now i have an expensive clothes hanger if i have a message to barry mccarthy, you should bundle. make the sas valuable. turn on netflix, amazon within the bike then i think you could actually see something happen without any real change to the sas model, this is a very expensive manufacturer >> i wonder given all of what we have been talking about and the economic situation what you think about inventory levels and importance of those as we head into q4? it seems so quitricky with consr demand uncertain everything we heard from retailers this week about what they have in warehouses that they need to discount ahead of more stuff for the holidays.

i don't remember a scenario this tricky in the past couple decades. >> i agree with you. the worst thing you can hold is expensiveinventory it is fine if you have cheap widgets in the warehouse if you have to hold inventory that best buy has to peloton, those are high ticket products those are things that will have the biggest challenge as interest rates continue to wear on consumers >> expensive and heavy that's the worst gina sanchez, thank you. >> thank you still ahead, a check on the social stocks with snap seeing the biggest losses right now a luook at what's behind that decline next. a look at the latest stocks on the session lows dow off nearly 700 points. ionwig -mobile for business do for your business?

unlock new insights and efficiency-right now. allow monitoring of productivity at remote job sites, with next-generation bandwidth. enable ai cameras that spot factory issues in real time, using next-generation speed. and deliver ultra-capacity 5g coverage that's years ahead of the competition. t-mobile for business has 5g that's ready right now.

welcome back to "the exchange." the selloff intensifying nasdaq off about 3%. social stocks meanwhile seeing big declines today as that selloff post powell hawkish speech continues julia boorstin has a look at the moves. julia. >> reporter: jon, we have seen the streaming stocks sell off the broader market look at netflix down 4%. roku up 6% shares of paramount global down 4% also we're watching the social stocks meta and pinterest shares are down 3.5%. snap is struggling the worst in the sector down 5%. it is not just the broader market issues. jon, this comes after a critical note from piper sandler yesterday. neutral rating and noted that

spend on snap from their measure is lower this year than last year they note that tiktok is the second most used social channel behind meta. snap, the company earlier this week agreed to a $35 million settlement in illinois that the company filters lens violated the bio-metric privacy act snap was hit with a lawsuit yesterday with the video overlay technology jon. >> ouch. let's put this in context with the economic turbulence. i know companies cut back on marketing budgets when things get tough and tight. also you have inventory that companies need to move they might need to use digital channels and targeting inventory. might this be overdone based on what we have seen historically >> reporter: it might be, jon. there is a question that the

marketers are looking to have the biggest impact as possible we heard from snap and meta about the challenges with the operating changes and making sure that not only are their ads having the potential impact in terms of targeting, but they are able to measure the impact that is what the ios changes they want to make sure the ad d dollars are working. in addition to the broader pull back there will be ad dollars going somewhere. the question is maybe they go to spotify or some of the streaming video players like netflix and disney as they launch ad supported systems. >> maybe they will go to tv. we'll see. julia boorstin, thank you. still ahead, a rough near for bitcoin down 50% so far.

my next guest says one metric is signaling the bottom is near we joins me next to make the case the dow down 700 points and the nasdaq down nearly 3%. we're back after this. thinkorswim® by td ameritrade is more than a trading platform. it's an entire trading experience. with innovation that lets you customize interfaces, charts and orders to your style of trading. personalized education to expand your perspective. and a dedicated trade desk of expert-level support. that will push you to be even better. and just might change how you trade—forever. because once you experience thinkorswim® by td ameritrade ♪♪♪ there's no going back.

with xfinity internet, you get advanced security that helps protect you at home and on the go.

you feel so safe, it's as if... i don't know... evander holyfield has your back. i wouldn't click on that. hey, thanks! we got a muffin for ed! all right! you don't need those calories. can we at least split it? nope. advanced security that helps protect your devices in and out of the home. i mean, can i have a bite? only from xfinity. nah. unbeatable internet. made to do anything so you can do anything.

welcome back to "the exchange." stocks continue their slide as chair powell says they will continue to fight rapid inflation. this selloff is not contained to stocks bitcoin dropping today about 4% and hovering near 20,000 now down a whopping 54% this year, but according to our next guest is one technical indicator out there that's flashing a buy signal let's bring in matthew kimmel. bitcoin research analyst with coin shares. you have to convince me, matthew, why this actually might work this time why do you think >> first, thanks for having me what i can tell you is there are several positive signals that could mean that bitcoin is soon entering the stage of more price stability or even nearing a market bottom. the first is that investors that bought in the previous market

cycle, back in 2016, 2017 on the rise up to $20,000 per coin have resisted the urge to sell their coins in this past market high at any point last year when they could have realized gains. this is sort of a signal suggesting there are conviction among some bitcoin, and so minors are laborers adding transaction to bitcoin block chain and we're in the capitulation, and once we reach full capitulation the excess supply that they've been releasing and selling into the bitcoin market could soon dry up and that means they could again begin accumulating bitcoin as they have done historically. >> that kind of assumes that

demand is going to keep up for crypto when we've just sort of moved out of this cycle where crypto was getting a lot of attention, right >> i mean, if we assume -- if we assume that demand is going to sort of go much lower, right this sort of supply restrictions could potentially mean in the possibility here that bitcoin could be nearing a potential rebound here, and just to throw in the third thing here is the exchanges and the stock markets where bitcoin is trading hands, there's been an outgoing trend from these exchanges from early 2020 so liquidity on these exchanges are sort of trending to be tightening a bit, as well. three signals here, right, are alluding to the fact that available bitcoin supply could

be restricting here. >> they do sort of seem to be interest rate sensitive from a year ago given that all the fed is trying to do, a big part of it is lower demand for all kinds of things and crypto seems to be responding to that should a potential crypto investor have that effect in mind. >> well, it's very difficult and nearly impossible to predict what is going to happen next and exactly what the fed is going to do, but what i can tell you is that they're monitoring and the institutional space. what we are seeing is a somewhat cautious optimism here amongst institutional investors, we published a fund flows report weekly we're not seeing hand over fist demand here, right, and pouring

into the bitcoin market, but in the recent drawdowns, what we are seeing is some investors sort of having more flows to these institutional products, right? generally at coin shares we have seen more inflows than outflows. >> all right matthew kimmel thank you. >> still ahead, the retail xrt lower down 10% and we'll check the retail trade and names that could be poised to hold up better than others if the economy continues to slow. we'll be right back. pany... ...running on a big impressive wireless network. how are we different? we exist only on your phone. so you get unlimited data for just $30/mo, taxes and fees included. plus we have a new plan with 5g ultra wideband. switch today at visible dot com. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq,

a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

welcome back the retail trade is getting hit along with the rest of the market courtney reagan is here with the check on the biggest movers. court? >> hi, jon the retail etf down 3% there are individual stocks, of course, getting hit even harder in the subsector the market's reading the tea

leaves of jerome powell's speech which suggests higher rates for longer and higher unemployment all potentially pressuring consumers' psyche and disk discretionary spending and names are getting hard abercrombie, pbh and hanes brands and off more than 5%. home furnishing stocks these are really selling off >> we know wayfair shares are volatile and those are down 8% even williams-sonoma which they reported another very strong quarter and reiterated guidance and that's getting thrown out, too, baby out with the bathwater. underarmour, lululemon, dick's sporting goods we had a strong quarter out of dick's sporting goods and the high-end consumer has been the one holding up for a lot of these companies and today, though, the stocks are breaking.

canada goose, tapestry, down more than 3% canada goose down more than 4% while there's safety in the discount space during recessionary times not today. look at 5 below, dollar tree, burlington off 3% and somewhere above 4% down. one area of retail that has been holding up in general and share performance is beauty and the economic trove about the lipstick indicator has held true you know the one where lipstick is a small luxury even when times are tough. >> they solidified the beauty strength thats held up by others up 19% in three months and of course d, you're not really seeing it, as well. >> last thought. i'm obsessed with inventory and labor costs heading into q4. how are these companies possibly

going to weather that? >> this is going to be really tough. i mean, look, we know costs are high and supply chains are tough and because supply chains are tough there's been a lot of inventory builds and some of it has been done on purpose and some of it is inventory that people don't want anymore. >> court, thanks near session lows on everything. that will do it for "the exchange." "power lunch" starts right now. i'm seema mody in for kelly evans. a big hour of "power lunch" ahead. stocks getting hit hard after the fed warns of rates for longer how to protect your investments and whether dividend payers are the best place to hide, but first we get to tyler with a check on the market. ty >> welcome, seema. welcome, everyone. the hawkish comments from fed chair higher sending all 11 sectors of the s&p 500 lower leta